How 156 Million Feature Phone Users Can Transition to 5G by 2030 in India
India is on the brink of a significant shift in its telecommunications sector. With the recent launch of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 4s Gen 2 chipset, affordable 5G smartphones priced below Rs 8,000 (~$99) are finally within reach. This development could potentially help migrate 156 million feature phone users to 5G networks by 2030, according to an analysis by Techarc. Let’s explore how this migration could take place and the impacts it may have on the Indian market.
Bringing Down Costs
Cost has always been a significant barrier to entry for many feature phone users looking to upgrade to smartphones. The new Snapdragon 4s Gen 2 chipset aims to address this issue by lowering the cost of 5G smartphones to below Rs 8,000. Xiaomi, one of India’s leading smartphone manufacturers, will launch the first device featuring this chip by the end of 2024.
According to Faisal Kawoosa, Chief Analyst at Techarc, the broader aim is to make these budget-friendly 5G smartphones even more affordable over the coming years. “Initially, these smartphones will cost between Rs 7,000 and 8,000, but we’re expecting the price to drop to Rs 5,000-6,000 in a couple of years,” Kawoosa said. This price reduction is essential for driving massive adoption and faster migration from feature phones to 5G smartphones.
Economic Impact
Techarc estimates that between 2024 and 2030, the sub-$99 5G smartphone market could cumulatively add $13 billion in revenues for the smartphone industry. Moreover, these affordable smartphones are expected to contribute between 2-3% of the smartphone revenues in India, starting in 2025.
It’s projected that 17-32 million new users could be added to the 5G smartphone base every year. This influx of new users will not only benefit telecom operators and smartphone manufacturers but will also boost various sectors reliant on digital connectivity.
Addressing Challenges
Despite these optimistic projections, several challenges need to be addressed for smooth migration. One major issue is competition from the second-hand smartphone market. High-quality smartphones in the Rs 15,000-20,000 range today could be available for Rs 5,000-8,000 in a few years, making them attractive alternatives to new sub-$99 5G phones.
Another challenge lies in the absence of compelling 5G use cases. Many users may wonder why they should switch to 5G if there aren’t substantial benefits over their current 2G or 4G connections. Additionally, rising mobile tariffs could further slow the migration process.
Role of Government and Private Sector
To alleviate these challenges, both the government and private sector need to step up. Government programs and schemes aimed at subsidizing the cost of these new 5G smartphones could make them more accessible to those at the lower end of the socio-economic ladder. Public awareness campaigns could also help educate potential users on the benefits of 5G technology.
Telecom operators like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are already gearing up to support this transition. While Jio has deployed a standalone (SA) 5G network, Airtel recently announced its readiness to launch SA-based 5G services. These developments indicate a broader ecosystem ready to support the influx of new 5G users.
A Better Mobile Experience
Qualcomm’s introduction of the Snapdragon 4s Gen 2 chipset is a strategic move aimed at providing “a high-end experience in an affordable package,” according to Chris Patrick, Senior Vice President and General Manager for Mobile at Qualcomm. This tiny powerhouse promises excellent camera capabilities, 1 Gbps download speeds, and advanced AI features for voice recognition in an affordable device.
By designing their graphics, AI technology, modem technology, and even their CPUs, Qualcomm has managed to bring together a combination of components that deliver high performance at a low cost. This all-in-one approach could significantly enhance user experience for those migrating from feature phones to 5G smartphones.
Looking Ahead
The next step involves keeping a lookout for announcements from major tech events like IFA 2024 in Berlin, where further details on new advancements and technology enhancements are expected.
This upcoming wave of affordable 5G technology could be the key to digitally uplifting millions of Indians, enabling new services, and creating more connected communities. As smartphones continue to become more affordable and accessible, the vision of a fully connected digital India is no longer a distant dream but an achievable goal by 2030.
Mehek 
Deepika