What is driving Indias current account surplus in recent quarters?

India’s Current Account Surplus: Triumph and Challenge

India’s current account balance recorded a surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6% of GDP in the January-March quarter, a significant improvement from the deficit of $1.3 billion or 0.2% in the year-ago quarter and the first surplus in 10 quarters. This turnaround was primarily driven by robust services exports and a surge in remittances from Indians living abroad.

Positives:

• Services exports grew by 9% to $142 billion, with business process exports experiencing a substantial 41% increase to $29 billion.
• Private transfers, primarily remittances, grew by 5% for the full-year FY24 and by 15.4% for the January-March quarter, contributing significantly to the current account surplus.
• India’s goods trade deficit declined, with exports falling by 3.3% and imports falling by 5.3%.

Challenges:

• The current account surplus was also aided by a decline in India’s goods trade deficit, but the lower imports reflect the limitations of India’s industrial and manufacturing sector rather than an increase in domestic production.
• Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell to $9.8 billion in FY24, down from $28 billion in FY23, indicating a slowdown in foreign investment.
• The current account surplus represents an outflow of the country’s savings, highlighting the challenge of utilizing domestic savings for growth in a country with a low per capita income.

Significance:

India’s current account surplus is a reflection of its growing services exports and the strength of the Indian diaspora. However, the surplus also highlights the challenges in harnessing the country’s full economic potential. Policymakers and entrepreneurs need to foster rapid growth in domestic industries and attract foreign investment to ensure that India can continue to benefit from its current account surplus and achieve sustainable economic development.