**US Inflation Data Weighs on Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate, Sparking Concerns of Currency Intervention**
US Inflation Surprises Markets
The release of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index on Friday sent ripples through currency markets, with the yen witnessing a significant depreciation against the US dollar. The data, which exceeded forecasts, fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may hold off on interest rate cuts this year, boosting the dollar’s value.
Yen Plunges to New Lows
The yen’s fall from grace was relentless, reaching its weakest level since 1990. On Monday, the greenback hit 160.17 yen, igniting speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene to stabilize their currency.
Japanese Authorities on High Alert
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has repeatedly expressed readiness to act if the exchange rate displays excessive volatility. Officials have identified speculators as a key source of concern. However, experts remain skeptical about the effectiveness of any intervention, given the underlying macroeconomic factors.
Market Uncertainty Remains
Expectations for US interest rate cuts have diminished following the strong PCE data. Investors now anticipate only one rate reduction this year, down from the six they had priced in earlier. The Fed’s upcoming policy announcement will be closely scrutinized for clues on its monetary policy intentions.
Japanese Monetary Policy Dilemma
The BoJ has adopted an ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero to combat deflation. However, the recent rise in inflation has put the bank in a bind. Raising rates to tame inflation could further strengthen the yen, while maintaining the current loose policy risks exacerbating the currency’s weakness.
Currency Intervention: A Possible Option?
Despite the BoJ’s reluctance to tighten monetary policy, market participants believe that currency intervention could be an alternative option to counter the yen’s depreciation. A weaker yen benefits Japanese exporters by boosting their earnings when converted back to the domestic currency.
Experts Weigh In
Market analysts have cautioned against overly optimistic expectations for currency intervention. Tapas Strickland of National Australia Bank highlights that “expectations of intervention having a sustained impact may disappoint given macro fundamentals do not support a sudden shift to a hawkish monetary stance.”
also read:Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Hawkish Stance: Impact of Persistent Inflation on Interest Rate Cuts and Policy Direction
Priyanka